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US oil production to surge to 13 million barrels a day by end of 2019

22/05/2019
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Despite a slow start to the year, US oil production is expected to surge to 13 million barrels a day by the end of 2019 according to a new report from Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy.
The surge in US oil production is being driven by the country's shale operators.
(The surge in US oil production is being driven by the country’s shale operators. Image via Chesapeake Energy).

This surge is driven by onshore shale production which is expected to spike by 16 percent (1.2 million barrels daily) despite being affected by a poor first quarter during which adverse weather and fluctuating prices impacted production.

“Despite temporary challenges faced in the beginning of the year, E&P companies are set to deliver on their original production and capital targets, with some being well positioned to perform above initial expectations. US shale players can still be expected to deliver around 16% oil growth in 2019. Several operators have in fact raised their production guidance for the remainder of the year,” said Veronika Akulinitseva, senior analyst at Rystad Energy in a statement.
Upward revisions of US shale oil production guidance for 2019
As part of its analysis Rystad Energy examined the first quarter results of around 50 US shale operators. They found that US producers, on average, saw a slowdown in oil production during Q1 2019. However, given the increase in production guidance from operators this indicates a steep growth curve for the remainder of the year according to Akulinitseva:

“The slow first quarter implies an even steeper expected growth curve for the remainder of the year. In fact, acceleration of oil production for many operators is already underway and oil additions are thus likely to increase notably already in the second quarter of 2019.”

The Canadian operator Enerplus was the player that raised its oil guidance the most, expecting 10% higher volumes than originally guided. It said growth is already underway and the company is aiming to generate a double-digit rise in production already in the second quarter. Likewise, SRC Energy, an independent operator in the Denver-Julesburg basin, raised its oil target by 7%, attributing the adjustment to overly conservative original guiding.

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US oil production to surge to 13 million barrels a day by end of 2019 - Time to read 2 min
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